On June 2, Donald Trump tweeted “SILENT MAJORITY!” in response to protests over the death of George Floyd. Later that month, at a rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, Trump declared, “The silent majority is stronger than ever before.” On the left, media outlets have made the case that Joe Biden won the Democratic primary, in part, through his own silent majority.

So, what or who is the silent majority? The phrase describes people who do not publicly express their views yet make up a majority of the population. Because of their silence, they are often ignored by the media, making majority support for an issue or candidate seem smaller than it really is. This is the opposite of the vocal minority, who do make their views known and, although they are a minority, receive a disproportionate amount of media attention, making minority support seem bigger than it actually is. By using the phrase, a politician can claim to have majority support for himself or an issue when the media narrative or polling suggests otherwise.

The phrase first entered modern American politics in 1969, during a speech President Richard Nixon delivered to the American public. Amid declining support for the war in Vietnam and widespread protests, Nixon’s speech juxtaposed protesters as a vocal minority against a silent majority that supported him. In doing so, Nixon pushed back against the narrative that protests represented declining support for his peace plan and called on the silent majority to continue their support for him.

2016 silent majority

In the 2016 presidential election, polls and the media expected a victory for Hillary Clinton. With the exception of a couple of days in July, Clinton enjoyed a consistent lead in national polling. Furthermore, in the key states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, she never gave up her lead over Trump. Despite the claims of the polls and media, Trump claimed the silent majority would carry him to victory in November.

On election night, Trump won enough states, including the three key states above, to give him enough electoral college votes to win the election. Did the election results validate Trump’s claim of a silent majority lifting him to victory? Did polling and the media ignore a group of Trump supporters, giving the impression of a Clinton win, only to be proven wrong when that group showed up on election day? Yes* and no. 

In the national sense, no, there was no silent majority supporting Trump. Clinton won a majority of votes nationwide, 2.8 million more than Trump. Clearly, no silent majority had thrown its support behind Trump at the national level. Of course, we do not elect our president through the popular vote. Instead, they are elected state by state through the electoral college. This is where Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania proved key to Trump’s victory. Had Clinton carried these states, she would have had enough electoral votes to win the election.

Looking at these three states, did a silent majority carry Trump to victory? In the most basic sense, yes.* Polling predicted these states would go to Clinton, suggesting polling had ignored Trump supporters. However, I place an asterisk next to that “yes” because these states were decided by such slim margins that the slightest change in support for one candidate or the other was enough to alter the outcome. Michigan was decided by .23% of the vote, Pennsylvania by .72% and Wisconsin by .77%. 

What about 2020?

What is surprising (or perhaps not) with the 2020 presidential campaign is that both sides are claiming a silent majority. Trump is using his 2016 playbook and stating that a silent majority is, once again, going to carry him to victory. Biden’s campaign argues that voters have grown tired of Trump’s chaotic administration and will support Biden on election day. I, too, have a little voice in the back of my head wondering if there is going to be an unexpected show of support for one candidate or another due to the uniqueness of this election. We have never had a presidential administration like Trump’s, nor have we had such a large push for early/absentee/mail-in voting due to a pandemic.

However, any prediction that a silent majority will show up for one candidate or another is speculation. Just like a broken clock is right twice a day, anyone can claim that a silent majority will support either candidate with a 50% chance of being right. We will have to wait until election night to find out.